A New Nod from Milei to Trump: Could It Have Consequences if Kamala Harris Wins?

President Javier Milei's recent comments raise questions about Argentina's future relations with the U.S. amid a shifting political landscape.

In a recent interview, Argentine President Javier Milei declared that he and Donald Trump are the "two most relevant politicians on planet Earth." This assertion, lacking any empirical support, reflects Milei's penchant for grandiose statements about himself and his government. With just two months until the U.S. elections, the implications of Milei's pro-Trump stance for Argentina are under scrutiny, especially with Kamala Harris emerging as a strong candidate for the Democratic Party following Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race.

Recent polls indicate that Harris is leading Trump in both voter intention and popularity. While this is not the first time Milei has expressed his affinity for Trump, he has also emphasized his alignment with the United States, regardless of who is in power. So far, his statements have not appeared to strain bilateral relations, but could his insistence on supporting Trump have repercussions if the Democrats win?

Implications of Milei's Statements

Analysts consulted by CNN largely agree that the impact of Milei's comments is likely minimal. "As long as Argentina aligns with the United States, the bilateral relationship will not suffer," says Martín Schapiro, an attorney specializing in international relations and a former undersecretary of International Affairs in Argentina. He notes that structural factors will dominate the relationship.

Federico Merke, a political scientist and director of the Master's program in Politics and International Economics at the University of San Andrés, adds that he finds it hard to believe Milei would be upset or disappointed by a potential Harris victory. "He would greet her and hope for the best," Merke states, highlighting that U.S.-Argentina ties extend beyond executive preferences and encompass issues like security, military cooperation, and a shared aversion to China.

In April, Milei met with General Laura Richardson, head of U.S. Southern Command, to discuss the progress of a joint naval base in Tierra del Fuego, which was described as a gateway to Antarctica. Richardson's objectives included countering China's expansion in the region, where China operates a ground station in Argentine Patagonia.

A Shifting Regional Landscape

At the regional level, a Trump victory could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape in Latin America, which would inevitably affect Argentina. "For Milei, it would be seen as a victory for an idea, a cause," Merke explains. In such a scenario, Milei would likely position himself as moving in the right direction.

Schapiro emphasizes that the main difference would be seen in relations with Brazil, affecting Argentina's positioning. "If the U.S. distances itself from Brazil and Colombia, regional partners that align closely with Milei would gain more value," he explains. He also notes that initiatives being pursued by the Biden administration with Lula's government in Brazil, such as those related to labor rights and energy transition, would be difficult to replicate under a Trump administration.

In terms of commerce, the U.S. is Argentina's fourth most important trading partner. In the first half of 2024, Argentine exports to the U.S. increased by over 15% compared to 2023, while Argentina ranks 48th in terms of U.S. imports. This indicates a significant asymmetry in the dependency between the two nations.

An Uncertain Future

As the U.S. elections approach, the relationship between Argentina and the United States remains a focal point. Although Milei has expressed his preference for Trump, analysts agree that the bilateral relationship is driven by structural interests that transcend individual political preferences. Argentina's reliance on external financing, particularly from the International Monetary Fund, adds another layer of complexity to this dynamic.

Ultimately, regardless of the election outcome in the U.S., it is likely that Argentina-U.S. relations will continue to evolve. However, Milei's alignment with Trump could have implications for Argentina's international standing, necessitating careful diplomatic navigation in the months ahead. The anticipation surrounding the U.S. electoral outcome promises to be a period of significant interest for Argentine foreign policy.